(GEO MILITARY AFFAIRS) —Israel’s once-celebrated missile defence system, long held as a model of layered air protection, is now buckling under the weight of relentless Iranian missile and drone barrages, with its interception rate plunging to a worrying 65 percent in the past 24 hours—a sharp decline from the 90 percent it managed just one day earlier.
A senior Israeli intelligence official, quoted by U.S. media, confirmed the dramatic drop in effectiveness, blaming the erosion in interception capability on Tehran’s deployment of faster, more maneuverable, and technologically advanced projectiles that have cut Israel’s missile warning time from ten minutes to a mere six.
Armed with terminal-phase precision guidance, these next-generation Iranian missiles have struck with disturbing accuracy, including the recent targeting of a hospital in Beersheba, underscoring the growing vulnerability of Israel’s missile shield against high-speed, low-reaction threats.
“Iranians do have a navigation system for the final phase of the attack that helps them to be very precise and to attack exactly the targets that they wish, like the hospital today in Beersheba,” the official stated.
Compounding the challenge, the Israeli military has verified that Iran has introduced multi-warhead missile systems, a strategic leap that allows multiple independently targeted reentry vehicles (MIRVs) to descend simultaneously, overwhelming interception grids with a single launch.
According to Army Radio, quoting security sources, one such missile struck the Gush Dan region, unleashing several warheads in flight—exploiting blind spots in Israel’s once-dominant, multi-tiered air defence framework.
Despite recent Israeli operations that eliminated top IRGC commanders, Iran has sustained its retaliatory campaign with what Israeli officials are calling a strategy of “strategic patience”—willing to absorb losses while leveraging superior missile technology to steadily degrade Israel’s defences.
“The faster Iranian missiles launched in the last day have also given Israel less time to prepare before the projectiles approach their intended targets,” the official added, highlighting how the threat environment is evolving beyond Israel’s current interception tempo.
Israel’s layered missile defence system—comprising Iron Dome for short-range threats, David’s Sling for medium-range, Arrow-2 and Arrow-3 for long-range and exo-atmospheric interception, along with U.S.-deployed THAAD batteries—has been hailed globally since its first deployment in 2011.
But in the face of Iran’s escalating barrage, that legacy is being tested to its limits.
Following the June 13, 2025 Israeli strike on Iranian infrastructure, Tehran launched a coordinated wave of retaliatory attacks involving not just ballistic missiles and drones, but also hypersonic weapons such as the Fattah-1 and Sejjil, both capable of evasive maneuvers at extreme velocities.
These hypersonic threats are notoriously difficult to detect, track, and intercept, effectively neutralizing the predictive algorithms of Israeli radar and fire-control systems, and pushing the operational thresholds of even its most advanced interceptors.
Though Iran’s launch volume has decreased—from 150 projectiles per day at the onset to about three dozen daily—the lethality and penetration efficiency of these attacks have risen steeply.
Israeli defence assessments now indicate that while only 10 percent of Iranian projectiles breached Israeli defences in the early phase, that number has climbed to 35 percent, a testament to Iran’s ongoing tactical recalibrations based on battlefield data.
Each successful interception now demands multiple interceptors, especially when countering advanced threats involving MIRVs or decoys, placing disproportionate strain on Israel’s stockpiles and launch batteries.
Some scenarios have reportedly required up to ten interceptors per incoming missile—an unsustainable expenditure rate for any prolonged campaign.
The financial cost of Israel’s defence posture is also ballooning.
According to The Marker, Israel is now spending approximately $285 million (RM1.34 billion) each night to maintain its current interception efforts, driven largely by the cost of Arrow interceptors, which come at a premium of $3 million (RM14 million) per unit.
Meanwhile, a new crisis is emerging: interceptor depletion.
The Wall Street Journal has revealed that Israel may have only enough Arrow and other interceptor systems to sustain its current pace for 10 to 12 more days, sparking serious concern in both Tel Aviv and Washington.
This looming shortfall has already begun to shape Israeli military planning.
“The system is already overwhelmed,” one senior official told the press, adding that Israel is now triaging its air defence efforts, allowing certain missile impacts in open terrain while conserving precious interceptors for nuclear facilities, military bases, and major urban centers.
While the Iron Dome continues to handle short-range attacks and David’s Sling intercepts medium-range threats, it is the Arrow system—Israel’s last line of defence against long-range and high-altitude ballistic threats—that is approaching critical depletion.
American defence sources have confirmed that the U.S. was aware of the looming shortfall and has quietly moved to expedite missile defence aid to Israel, including emergency inventory sharing.
However, Washington is itself under logistical strain as it juggles interceptor commitments to Ukraine and Taiwan, raising the possibility of a broader supply chain stress across Western missile defence programmes.
A parallel report by The Washington Post, citing officials familiar with joint intelligence assessments, confirmed the 10- to 12-day projection, warning that by week’s end, Israel may be forced to prioritize only the most existential threats.
With Iranian attacks increasingly executed via multi-axis, swarm formations, even well-coordinated Israeli interception protocols are being outflanked, heightening the risk of penetration into strategic depth.
As Tehran continues deploying cutting-edge projectiles with rising precision and lower reaction times, Israeli air defence networks are being stretched to both operational and financial breaking points.
The consequences extend far beyond Israel’s borders.
This evolving conflict represents a live-fire laboratory for modern missile defence in the hypersonic era, where speed, saturation, and strategic ambiguity are rapidly rendering legacy interception doctrine obsolete.
Unless reinforced urgently by allied support or breakthrough technological adaptation, Israel’s deteriorating defence posture could mark a dangerous strategic inflection point in the balance of power across the Middle East.
— DEFENCE SECURITY ASIA