(GEO MILITARY AFFAIRS ) — In a strategic recalibration that could reshape the aerial balance in the Middle East, Iran is reportedly evaluating the acquisition of the Chinese-built J-10C “Vigorous Dragon,” a highly capable 4.5-generation multirole fighter jet already dubbed the “Rafale Killer” in regional defence circles.
This growing interest comes in the wake of widely circulated claims that Pakistan’s J-10C fighters, armed with PL-15E beyond-visual-range (BVR) air-to-air missiles, shot down three Indian Air Force Rafales during a four-day aerial confrontation last month—a claim that, if true, would mark a dramatic upset in regional airpower calculations.
Iranian Defence Minister Aziz Nasirzadeh’s recent visit to Qingdao, China, for the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation (SCO) summit—an alliance spearheaded by Russia and China—coincided with intensified speculation about Tehran’s shifting procurement strategy.
The SCO, often viewed as a Eurasian counterweight to NATO, includes major regional military stakeholders such as India, Pakistan, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, Uzbekistan, and Belarus, making it a potent venue for behind-the-scenes defence diplomacy.
Iran’s consideration of the J-10C reportedly stems from mounting frustration over prolonged delays in its attempt to procure the Russian-made Su-35 “Flanker-E,” a 4.5-generation heavyweight fighter originally ordered by Egypt but redirected after Cairo cancelled the deal under U.S. pressure.
Facing an increasingly volatile strategic environment following a 12-day high-intensity conflict with Israel, Iranian military planners are said to be evaluating the J-10C as a practical and combat-proven alternative should the Su-35 purchase continue to stall.
Iran’s air force, which still relies heavily on legacy platforms such as the F-4 Phantom and MiG-29—many over five decades old—is in dire need of modern fighter jets to close its yawning airpower gap with regional adversaries such as Israel and Saudi Arabia.
The J-10C’s sterling battlefield record during the latest India-Pakistan conflict, according to defence analysts, has propelled the Chinese fighter to the top of Tehran’s list of alternatives.
Equipped with the PL-15E, China’s next-generation BVR missile, the J-10C operated by the Pakistan Air Force (PAF) allegedly downed not just three Rafales, but also a Su-30MKI, a MiG-29, and a Mirage 2000—an unprecedented feat if verified.
These claims, while contested by Indian sources, have electrified global military observers and elevated the J-10C’s credibility in combat against Western platforms.
The J-10C, developed by Chengdu Aircraft Corporation (CAC), now finds itself under an intense spotlight, especially after its appearance at the 2025 Langkawi International Maritime and Aerospace Exhibition (LIMA) in Malaysia.
At LIMA 2025, the J-10CE—an export variant of the J-10C—drew crowds and headlines alike at the China pavilion, with state-affiliated Global Times reporting that international delegates and military analysts flocked to witness the jet’s capabilities firsthand.
“Pesawat pejuang J-10CE, iaitu varian eksport kepada J-10C, menjadi tumpuan utama di booth China (di LIMA 2025) selepas mencipta kejayaan dalam pertempuran sebenar,” the Chinese media outlet reported, underscoring the model’s growing reputation.
Since its formal induction into the People’s Liberation Army Air Force (PLAAF) in 2006, the J-10 series has evolved into one of China’s most important air combat platforms, with approximately 220 J-10C units currently in service as of mid-2025.
Representing the apex of the J-10 lineage, the J-10C integrates a powerful indigenous WS-10B turbofan engine, full digital fly-by-wire control, and a modern avionics suite—delivering enhanced manoeuvrability and combat readiness across multiple mission profiles.
Unlike its predecessors, the J-10C is fitted with an active electronically scanned array (AESA) radar, dramatically improving its situational awareness and target acquisition range in contested environments.
Aerodynamically, it features a canard-delta configuration that enables superior agility in both dogfight and high-altitude interception roles, further cementing its place among the most capable non-stealth fighters in the world.
Military analysts frequently compare the J-10C’s performance envelope to that of the American F-16, though some argue it exhibits “Lavi DNA”—a nod to the Israeli Lavi programme from which it allegedly borrows certain design philosophies.
Pakistan’s J-10C acquisition, confirmed in 2022, focused specifically on air superiority roles, benefiting from the integration of the PL-15—an air-to-air missile co-developed with Russian expertise and designed to rival the American AIM-120 AMRAAM.
With a reported engagement range of 200 to 300 km in its domestic variant and around 145 km for the export-configured PL-15E, the missile gives the J-10C a decisive advantage in first-launch scenarios, especially in BVR engagements.
China’s defence industry has pitched the PL-15E as a direct competitor to the AIM-120C-7 and even the newer D variant, offering lower-cost lethality with strong export potential to countries like Iran, Egypt, and potentially Southeast Asian buyers.
These developments further underscore China’s growing ambition to dominate the global fighter export market, challenging U.S., French, and Russian aerospace supremacy, particularly in emerging markets.
Iran, which reportedly finalised its plan to purchase Su-35s from Russia in late 2023 through the state-affiliated Tasnim news agency, has since faced new uncertainties as Moscow’s delivery timelines remain elusive.
Egypt’s original Su-35 deal, valued at over USD 2 billion (approximately RM9.4 billion), collapsed under Washington’s Countering America’s Adversaries Through Sanctions Act (CAATSA), sending dozens of completed jets into geopolitical limbo.
Russia allegedly re-offered these airframes to Iran in exchange for Tehran’s expanding military support in Ukraine, which has included thousands of Shahed-136 suicide drones and more recently, ballistic missiles used against Ukrainian infrastructure.
While the Su-35 remains an attractive option on paper—featuring Irbis-E radar, 3D thrust-vectoring, and powerful AL-41F1S engines—its delivery risk and political baggage have made the J-10C increasingly appealing to Tehran’s decision-makers.
Moreover, Chinese defence exports face fewer diplomatic hurdles compared to Russian hardware, allowing for faster, more discreet procurement pathways, especially amid tightening Western sanctions.
Should Iran move ahead with a formal J-10C purchase, it would mark a major shift in the country’s defence procurement doctrine, aligning it more closely with China’s military-industrial complex and signaling reduced dependence on Russian aerospace technology.
Such a move would not only boost the credibility of China’s defence sector but also deepen Beijing’s defence ties in the Gulf—adding a new dimension to its strategic encirclement of Western-aligned military alliances in the region.
With regional tensions mounting—from Israeli air raids to American sanctions—Iran’s pivot toward the J-10C could redefine its air deterrence posture, potentially accelerating an arms race across the Middle East.
As Tehran weighs its options between Russian delays and Chinese reliability, the choice between the Su-35 and the J-10C may very well dictate the Islamic Republic’s airpower trajectory for the next two decades.
Whether China’s “Rafale Killer” eventually becomes the new frontline fighter of the Islamic Republic of Iran Air Force (IRIAF) remains to be seen—but one thing is clear: the global arms market is watching closely.
–GEO MILITARY AFFAIRS