In a dramatic escalation of the diplomatic chess game over Iran’s military trajectory, Israel has issued an urgent appeal for China to wield its unmatched economic and political leverage to restrain Tehran’s expanding military and nuclear ambitions.
This high-stakes plea comes at a pivotal moment as credible reports indicate that Iran is now actively weighing a potential acquisition of China’s J-10C “Vigorous Dragon” multirole fighter jet — an advanced combat aircraft that has earned notoriety as the region’s new “Rafale Killer.”
Speaking in Shanghai recently, Israeli Consul General Ravit Baer minced no words when describing Beijing’s unique position of influence over Tehran’s decision-makers.
“China is the only one capable of influencing Iran,” Baer said, according to Bloomberg News.
She pointedly added that “Iran would collapse if China didn’t buy its oil,” highlighting the fact that nearly 90 percent of the Islamic Republic’s oil exports now flow directly to Chinese buyers.
“They can pressure Iran. They have political power over Iran. They can help change its malign activities in the region,” Baer emphasized, reiterating the urgent need for Beijing to act decisively.
This direct diplomatic overture underscores growing Israeli anxiety over Iran’s increasingly public flirtation with the Chinese-built J-10C, a 4.5-generation fighter platform that has quickly earned combat credibility in the region.
Defence sources confirm that Iran’s renewed interest in the J-10C is rooted in its mounting frustration over the stalling of its much-hyped Su-35 “Flanker-E” deal with Russia.
Originally ordered by Egypt in a contract worth over USD 2 billion (RM9.4 billion), the Su-35 airframes were left in geopolitical limbo after Cairo abandoned the agreement under threat of U.S. Countering America’s Adversaries Through Sanctions Act (CAATSA) penalties.
Moscow later pivoted, offering the same airframes to Tehran in exchange for escalating Iranian drone and ballistic missile deliveries to Russian forces in Ukraine.
Iran’s Shahed-136 suicide drones have become synonymous with devastating Russian strikes on Ukrainian infrastructure, while Tehran’s expanding ballistic missile support has triggered fresh rounds of Western sanctions.
Yet despite these high-profile exchanges, the Su-35 delivery timeline remains murky, leaving Iran’s air force planners deeply uneasy as they confront a critical airpower gap with Israel, Saudi Arabia, and other regional rivals.
It is this strategic vacuum that has pushed the J-10C firmly into the Iranian spotlight — and by extension, into the heart of the latest Israel-China diplomatic flashpoint.
Dubbed the “Rafale Killer” by some regional analysts, the J-10C’s recent performance has amplified its allure for Tehran’s military establishment.
Pakistan’s J-10Cs, for example, were at the centre of sensational claims last month when Pakistani defence sources alleged that their Vigorous Dragons, armed with PL-15E long-range beyond-visual-range (BVR) missiles, downed as many as three Indian Air Force Rafales, a Su-30MKI, a MiG-29, and a Mirage 2000 during a four-day BVR dogfight — a claim still hotly contested by Indian defence officials.
While the veracity of those claims remains in dispute, they have electrified military observers across the Middle East and South Asia, bolstering the J-10C’s standing as a viable threat to premium Western fighters at a fraction of the cost.
Developed by Chengdu Aircraft Corporation, the J-10C represents the cutting edge of China’s indigenous combat aircraft lineage.
It incorporates a canard-delta aerodynamic layout, full digital fly-by-wire controls, and the potent WS-10B turbofan engine, giving it agility and high-altitude interception capabilities comparable to modern F-16s.
Unlike its earlier variants, the J-10C features an active electronically scanned array (AESA) radar, providing vastly improved situational awareness and fire control in dense threat environments.
This upgrade, combined with the PL-15E missile — a co-development with Russian input — extends the fighter’s first-shot, first-kill potential well beyond many legacy platforms.
While the domestic variant of the PL-15 reportedly boasts a kill range of up to 200–300 km, its export-configured PL-15E still offers an impressive 145 km reach — putting it in the same league as the U.S. AIM-120C-7 and newer D variant.
These performance factors have made the J-10C particularly appealing for nations seeking an advanced air dominance platform without the political and logistical headaches of Russian hardware.
Iran’s intensifying procurement talks with Beijing therefore mark a subtle but profound shift away from Moscow’s aerospace orbit — a development with significant implications for the region’s fragile strategic balance.
As Iran contemplates this pivot, its recent high-level interactions with China have added fuel to speculation.
Iranian Defence Minister Aziz Nasirzadeh’s presence at the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation (SCO) summit in Qingdao underscored the deepening axis between Tehran, Beijing, and Moscow within this Eurasian security bloc.
The SCO, often described as a counterweight to NATO, now provides an ideal diplomatic backchannel for defence negotiations that could upend the status quo.
Meanwhile, Israel’s direct call for China to rein in Iran’s ambitions highlights a hard geopolitical truth: that the Islamic Republic’s resilience in the face of Western sanctions is inextricably linked to its lucrative oil lifeline with China.
Should Iran move ahead with a formal J-10C procurement, it would mark a watershed moment for the Islamic Republic of Iran Air Force (IRIAF).
Its legacy fleet of aging U.S.-built F-4 Phantoms and Soviet-era MiG-29s is simply no match for the cutting-edge platforms fielded by Israel and the Gulf states.
Replacing these antiques with the J-10C could give Tehran a credible shot at rebalancing the regional aerial chessboard — particularly as high-intensity conflicts and covert strikes in the Middle East show no signs of abating.
For Beijing, sealing a J-10C deal with Tehran would cement China’s emergence as a serious global arms player.
It would also expand Beijing’s defence-industrial footprint in the Gulf, further entrenching its influence in a region long dominated by U.S., European, and Russian weapons suppliers.
Such a shift could also complicate efforts by Washington and its allies to enforce arms embargoes, given the faster, less visible supply chains enabled by China’s state-owned defence behemoths.
This is precisely why Israel’s diplomatic outreach to Beijing is so consequential.
With global energy flows, advanced weapons technology, and great power rivalry intersecting in Iran’s procurement calculus, Israel’s security establishment is racing to forestall a scenario where the J-10C becomes the new spearhead of Tehran’s regional power projection.
Whether Beijing heeds Israel’s call remains an open question.
China has so far balanced its role as Iran’s economic patron with its own ambitions to deepen ties across the Gulf, including lucrative energy and infrastructure deals with Israel’s Arab neighbours.
But with reports swirling of Tehran’s imminent pivot towards China’s “Rafale Killer,” this balance may soon tilt decisively.
In a Middle East where precision-guided munitions, BVR combat, and drone swarms are now part of the daily strategic equation, the emergence of a Chinese-built fighter jet in Iranian colours would be more than just a procurement decision — it would be a signal that the global arms market’s centre of gravity is drifting east.
One thing is certain: as Israel leans on China to restrain its volatile partner, and Tehran doubles down on its quest for air superiority, the stakes for regional stability — and for the broader global military-industrial order — have never been higher.