(GEO MILITARY AFFAIRS) — Iran’s controversial nuclear ambitions remain very much alive despite recent joint Israeli and American airstrikes that targeted key enrichment sites deep inside the country, according to the latest grim assessment from the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA).
In a candid interview, IAEA Director General Rafael Grossi revealed that Tehran retains the industrial and technological capabilities to restart uranium enrichment to near weapons-grade levels within mere months — a timeline that contradicts bold claims made by former US President Donald Trump, who declared Iran’s nuclear infrastructure “totally obliterated.”
Grossi’s warning comes as regional and global powers scramble to assess the true extent of the damage inflicted during the high-stakes strikes on June 13, which saw Israel lead coordinated attacks against suspected nuclear and military sites, followed by American precision bombing raids on Fordo, Natanz, and Isfahan — installations at the core of Iran’s uranium enrichment network.
“Frankly speaking, one cannot claim that everything has disappeared and there is nothing there,” Grossi said bluntly, adding that the strikes had caused “severe but not total” destruction.
While some Western intelligence assessments initially suggested the operation would cripple Iran’s ability to revive its nuclear weapons program, Grossi’s remarks paint a far more sobering picture.
According to the IAEA’s findings, Iran still possesses sufficient stocks of advanced centrifuges and technical know-how to get a few cascades spinning again, producing highly enriched uranium that — if further refined — could yield multiple nuclear warheads.
Equally alarming is Tehran’s existing stockpile of 60-percent enriched uranium, which hovers just below weapons-grade and could, in theory, produce material for up to nine nuclear bombs if processed further.
Grossi acknowledged that his agency has yet to confirm whether this stockpile was destroyed, relocated, or remains partially intact.
“There has to be, at some point, a clarification,” he told CBS News, underlining the IAEA’s limited on-the-ground access after years of tense relations with Iranian authorities.
The latest disclosure is likely to fuel renewed calls from Israel’s security establishment for preemptive measures to keep Iran’s nuclear program in check — a priority that remains at the heart of Tel Aviv’s regional deterrence strategy.
For its part, the Pentagon’s own preliminary damage report — leaked earlier this week — indicates that the strikes may have only delayed Iran’s nuclear breakout capability by several months, raising uncomfortable questions about the long-term efficacy of airstrikes alone in stopping Tehran’s atomic ambitions.
Defence analysts note that Iran’s resilience in rebuilding its nuclear facilities stems from decades of investment in redundant infrastructure and deep-underground bunkers designed specifically to withstand limited aerial bombardment.
Sites like Fordow, buried deep beneath a mountain near Qom, have long been a nightmare for Western military planners, with some analysts warning that only massive bunker-busting ordnance — or a sustained campaign — could decisively neutralise such hardened targets.
Meanwhile, Iran’s leadership continues to insist that its nuclear programme is strictly for peaceful energy and medical purposes, dismissing accusations of covert weapons development as politically motivated.
However, repeated enrichment to near weapons-grade levels, alongside advances in missile technology and alleged weapons design work, have kept Tehran on the radar of both Western and regional intelligence agencies, all of whom fear a new Middle East nuclear arms race if Iran crosses the threshold.
The Fordow, Natanz, and Isfahan sites have long been regarded as the backbone of Iran’s enrichment capability, enabling Tehran to stockpile enriched uranium far beyond the levels permitted under the defunct Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA).
The nuclear deal, which once sought to curb Iran’s enrichment levels in exchange for sanctions relief, collapsed in 2018 after Washington’s unilateral withdrawal, setting the stage for Tehran’s incremental return to higher levels of enrichment and its increasingly confrontational posture towards international inspectors.
Grossi’s remarks also come amid renewed diplomatic manoeuvres to revive some form of oversight over Iran’s programme, though many observers remain deeply sceptical about Tehran’s willingness to accept intrusive monitoring or to negotiate new curbs while under constant threat of military action.
In the shadows of these latest developments, Israel’s message is clear: it will not hesitate to act alone or with American support to prevent what it sees as an existential threat, even if such strikes only buy precious time.
As the dust settles over Fordow, Natanz, and Isfahan, intelligence agencies worldwide will be watching satellite imagery, seismic data, and any signs of centrifuge activity with laser focus, mindful that what was once unthinkable — an Iranian nuclear bomb — could still become a strategic reality in an already volatile region.
For now, the race between sabotage and enrichment continues — with no guarantee that the next round of strikes, diplomatic overtures, or sanctions will keep the nuclear genie inside the bottle for long.
A renowned nuclear arms control expert, Dr. Jeffrey Lewis from the Middlebury Institute and the James Martin Center for Non-Proliferation Studies, has described the recent joint American and Israeli military operations as a major failure.
“Why am I not impressed at all by this strike? Israel and the United States have failed to target critical elements within Iran’s nuclear material stockpile and production infrastructure. RISING LION and MIDNIGHT HAMMER may be tactically impressive, but they risk becoming a strategic failure.”
The core issue, he stressed, is Iran’s stockpile of enriched uranium, which is estimated at around 400 kilograms at 60 percent U-235 — an amount sufficient to produce between nine and ten nuclear warheads if further enriched to weapons-grade levels.
Dr. Lewis acknowledged that the enrichment sites in Qom (Fordow Fuel Enrichment Plant) and Natanz (both the Pilot Fuel Enrichment Plant and the main Fuel Enrichment Plant) may have sustained significant damage, but he emphasised that a massive underground complex near Natanz — widely believed to house Iran’s centrifuge production lines — appears entirely unscathed.
This subterranean facility, which was relocated into the hills in 2022 specifically to guard against sabotage, is estimated to cover more than 10,000 square meters.
Deeply buried beneath layers of earth and reinforced structures, this installation is virtually impervious to most conventional bunker-busting munitions, and its exact operational role remains shrouded in uncertainty — although experts strongly suspect it may also host clandestine enrichment activities.
— GEO MILITARY AFFAIRS